Pandemic - not here please!

Given the local, national and international media attention that bird flu is generating it seems a little surprising that the response of the New Zealand business and other communities is bordering on the apathetic especially considering that the economic impacts are not invisible.

160,000 turkeys have been culled at one farm in Suffolk following a confirmed outbreak of H5N1 early in 2007. Japan has suspended imports of UK birds.

French poultry farmers’ have been hit hard in the pocket and their anger is understandable since around 40 countries have blocked their poultry product exports following an outbreak.

Turkish tourism operators are also apparently feeling the pinch. Tourist numbers from the UK dropped around 50% after bird flu was reported in Turkey and that drop equates to about 1 million visitors per annum.

Some human deaths from the bird flu have been reported in several Asian and African countries, only a hundred or so in total and thousands of kilometers distant.
This geographical isolation from the threat gives us great comfort – we will get plenty of warning and have time to shore up our defences. The concern is that the virus will mutate into a far deadlier form for which we currently have little in the way of protection.

Many pessimists are taking the view that every day brings us closer to a pandemic. Some think that the country should be on a virtual war footing and others think that government planning will not be able to prevent or contain the influenza to any significant extent.

The more cynical think that the threat is akin to SARS and Year 2000 - much ado about nothing or merely a conspiracy amongst drug manufacturers to inflate the sales of their products.   

Even the experts have significant differences of opinion on the likelihood of an avian flu pandemic and its impacts. We consider that the evidence is sufficient to take heed. We consider that a pandemic is at least as likely as some other scenarios for which emergency plans or business continuity plans are already in place.

Businesses would be well advised to ensure that their emergency response and business continuity plans are up to date and include specific planning for dealing with a pandemic.